The news of Iran’s war increased on Tuesday as the speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said publicly that Tehran will not accept negotiations under the conditions it sees as compelling, as the ten-day US-Iran suspension will expire on Wednesday and both sides are sharpening their propaganda before the talks that will be held in Islamabad.
Summary
- Ghalibaf warned that Iran had spent the past two weeks preparing “new cards on the battlefield” and accused Trump of violating the ceasefire by maintaining naval sanctions and demanding Iran’s surrender.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it has no plans for a second round of talks, while IRIB cited Iranian sources as confirming that no decision has been made to participate in the Islamabad talks.
- Trump told CNBC that he was “ready to go back” to war if no deal was reached and said he would not extend the ceasefire, while also saying he expected “big gains” and that Iran had “no option.”
News of the Iran war took a turn for the worse on Tuesday as Iranian officials issued a unified message hours before a US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance was due to arrive in Islamabad. Tehran’s position, as expressed through many official channels, is that it will not enter into negotiations while the US has blocked its ports and while American officials are publicly threatening increased military strikes.
“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and for the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” Ghalibaf wrote in X. He accused Trump of using the end-of-war period to demand Iran’s surrender instead of a real deal, calling the US stance “war.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed at the weekly press conference that “at the moment, we have no plans for the next round of talks, and no decision has been taken in this regard.”
Why Tehran Holds Its Position
The core Iranian appeal is structural. The US imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports on the same day the ceasefire was announced, treating it as a tool of coercion rather than an actual pause in the war. Iran has been adamant since Sunday that its continued participation in any talks depends on the US changing its behavior, notably lifting the blockade and ending what Tehran describes as ceasefire violations.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian separately criticized US officials for sending “unconstructive and contradictory signals,” noting that Trump publicly said Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium while Iran denied this within hours of the claim. The gap between what each side says the other has agreed to is also an obstacle to building the trust needed for the second round of negotiations.
The Status of Hormuz and What Happened at Midnight
The ceasefire expires on Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran briefly reopened before closing again after the seizure of the cargo ship Touska, remains effectively closed to normal traffic. Iran sent drones to US warships after the Touska boarded the US military, showing that its military posture is still working. The carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is operating in the Mediterranean while the USS Abraham Lincoln is in the northern Arabian Sea, and a third carrier group is expected in the region by the end of the month.
Trump told CNBC he’s “ready to walk” if talks fail and said he won’t rush. He also said that Iran “has no other option” but to negotiate. The contradictions in those statements and Iran’s refusal to talk about the threat explain the tension leading up to Wednesday’s deadline.
What This Means for Oil and Crypto Markets
Hopes of ending the war that lifted Bitcoin to $72,700 and sent oil down 13% on April 8 are now in direct danger. The resumption of conflicts at midnight on Wednesday will push Brent crude above $100 and remove the huge headwind that has supported the crypto markets for the past two weeks. The oil price channel to inflation expectations, the Fed’s rate policy, and asset risk exposure means that the outcome of Wednesday’s deadline is the single biggest volatility in the near future for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
