Bitcoin price predictions are getting tougher as BTC is turned around $76,000 for the third time in a row, retreating towards $74,000 while a closely watched exit signal flashes what could be a major setup.
Summary
- Bitcoin briefly marked $76,000 on April 14 before pulling back sharply to around $74,000, extending a two-month stand at that resistance level.
- Binance’s bitcoin perpetual funding rate has remained negative for 46 days in a row, which has not been seen since the FTX crash in late 2022.
- Vetle Lunde of K33 Research says that a combination of tight shorts and rising open interest has preceded a sharp move in BTC.
Bitcoin price predictions are becoming increasingly cautious as BTC records its third rejection of $76,000 in two months. After briefly scaling that level on April 14, the stock pulled back and settled near $74,000, holding a 1.3% gain over 24 hours but failing to deliver any further breakouts.
The broader context remains difficult. BTC is still about 41% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, with the FOMC meeting on April 28, Iran’s April 22 expiration, and the CLARITY Act all sitting in the near-term window.
Funding rates on Binance bitcoin perpetual have remained negative for 46 straight days, as open interest continues to rise. That combination means that new short positions are added to the amount that refuses to collapse, which is the very setup that has historically combined markets into violent pullbacks.
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde flagged the dynamic in a new report, noting the 30-day average for the currency has now been in a negative period longer than any comparable period in bitcoin’s history. Only March to May 2020 (63 days) and June to August 2021 (49 days) saw longer streaks. Both precede significant recovery.
“Similar risk-off regimes have been attractive entry points for BTC,” Lunde said, as heavy short trading was forced to ease.
What To Give BTC To Break
Three rejections at $76,000 without a definite close above it indicate the presence of a persistent seller at that level. Until the volume confirms a true exit, the resistance is firm. Combined, $68,000 remains a structural floor, and a break below could expose BTC to a sharp move to $65,000 if major conditions break.
The near-term calendar is crowded. A ceasefire extension from Iran, an ambiguous signal from the FOMC, or a CLARITY Act catalyst could be what forces the short squeeze. Except for one, the merger continues.
Historical Context and What It Means
The 46-day streak now matches the length of the market-defining defensive zone around the FTX crash low in late 2022. The regime also showed an increase in open interest and negative funding, and it was resolved by a sharp upward movement when traders were exhausted.
The signal does not confirm the rally. But the math is simple: the long shorts remain crowded under $76,000 without following to the bottom, where the movement is most suppressed.
