Iran peace talks entered a more ambiguous phase on Monday as Vice President JD Vance prepared to lead a delegation to Islamabad along with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reports Axios, as Iran’s Foreign Ministry officially said it had “no plans” for a second round and Tehran suspected the invitation included a US military strike before Wednesday’s ceasefire.
Summary
- Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes arrived at Pakistan’s air base on Sunday carrying security supplies, while Islamabad’s Red Zone was closed and thousands of security personnel deployed in anticipation of the US arrival.
- Trump told Axios: “I feel good about it. The concept of the deal is done. I think we have a very good chance of getting it done,” directly contradicting Iran’s public refusal to negotiate.
- Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed that its counterpart had spoken to Iran’s foreign minister by phone on Sunday “about the need to continue talks,” leaving a small window for Iran to change its stance.
The Iran peace talks are entering a crucial 48 hours as the deadline expires on Wednesday and no Iranian delegation has been publicly confirmed. The US delegation is leaving anyway. Pakistan has kept Islamabad under a security lockdown pending a second round, with thousands of troops and soldiers deployed in the Red Zone.
The American team, the same configuration that led the unsuccessful first round on April 11 and 12, is led by Vance and includes Witkoff and Kushner. Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes had already arrived at Pakistan’s air base on Sunday with security equipment and vehicles, indicating that the team is committed to the arrival whether or not Iran has confirmed participation.
Tehran has told negotiators that it believes the US announcement of talks is designed to create a “blame game” story: to publicly commit to talks while preparing for military strikes that would accompany the expiration of the ceasefire. Sunday’s capture of Touska, which came hours after Trump announced talks with Pakistan, reinforced those suspicions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry described US statements about the talks as “a media game.”
Iran’s top negotiator Ghalibaf said in a statement on state television on Saturday that Iran’s military is always “ready” or pursuing talks, making the two approaches simultaneous instead of one another. The original suspension was announced just hours before the midnight deadline when Trump threatened that “the whole civilization will die tonight.” Iran’s negotiating team arrived at the first round dressed in black, in mourning for those killed in the war. The level of mistrust in institutions is beyond words.
What Pakistan is Trying as a Mediator
Pakistan has framed these engagements as an ongoing “Islamabad process” rather than a one-round one, giving itself the flexibility to survive a second collapse without the entire framework collapsing. Prime Minister Sharif spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Sunday. Pakistan army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir acted as the main liaison between the delegations during the conflict.
Despite Iran’s public denial, Pakistani officials have finalized security arrangements for the Red Zone, suggesting that Islamabad has reason to believe that Iran may still be involved. An Iranian parliamentary official told Al Jazeera that Iran “might” send a delegation on Monday or Tuesday, a gap between the Foreign Ministry’s statement and the parliamentary official’s comments that Pakistan is working to close.
What It Means for the Effect on Crypto Markets
The next 48 hours will determine which scenario plays out in the Bitcoin price markets. The extension of the ceasefire or the actual agreement repeats the template of April 8: the crash of oil and the increase of BTC, possibly to $80,000. Guaranteed breakdowns with initiated strikes assess the institution’s figure below $70,000.
The sticking point for Iran’s nuclear program remains the most difficult to close: the US requires Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment, and Iran has said it will not give up its 440-kilogram stockpile. A second round would require finding a way, such as third-party storage, which neither side has publicly endorsed but which the two have reportedly discussed through Pakistani mediators.
